Packers vs. Seahawks - a small conspiracy theory

If you pay even a passing bit of attention to the NFL you will be aware that the first three weeks of the season were officiated by "replacement referees" due to a labour issue between the league and its' regular referees.

The results weren't pretty, as could be expected, the NFL might be the hardest league in the world to officiate with 22 players all making all sorts of legal, and illegal, contact over the course of 120-140 plays per game. There were all sorts of questionable calls, wrong markings, poor decisions, wrong yardage penalized etc, etc., and even more frightening was that the 300 pound behemoths that inhabit the league were losing respect for the zebras and all out anarchy was about to ensue, meaning that by week five I'm pretty sure an on field death or two would have occurred.

The "replacement referees" issue came to a head on Monday night in Seattle when, on the final play of the game, the refs completely botched two calls on the same play and turned what should have been a 12-7 Green Bay victory into a 14-12 Seattle victory. You can watch the video of the final play any number of places but this is as good as you can find in my opinion. The possession of the ball is a questionable call, the offensive pass interference call was totally blatant but regardless the result is 14-12 Seattle. The results were long and loud with tens of thousands of letters and emails sent to NFL offices and even commentary from Barrack Obama on the issue. The end result was a swift resolution to the lockout and the real refs were back at work on Thursday.

During the discussion of the Green Bay-Seattle game much was made of the gambling aspect, Green Bay, as 3 point favourites, would have covered and paid off their backers had the erroneous call not been made, instead Packers backers (I just like writing that) lost their bets and Seattle supporters cashed their betting slips instead.

Here's where it gets interesting to me: this game was one of the most lopsided bet games on you will ever see with industry estimates that over 65% of the money was on Green Bay . This is a bad situation for the casinos and sports books because they really in the gambling business, the casinos, bookies, whatever charge a standard 10% surcharge on lost bets, known as the vigorish or vig, so in order to win $100 the bettor must put up $110, if you win you get your $110 back plus your $100 bet, if you lose..........well you lose. The casinos etc. are best served with even money on each side of the ledger and the resulting 10% profit but on Monday night, prior to the final play, the books were looking at a big time haircut.

How big you ask ?  Well according to many sources the amount wagered on the game in Las Vegas casinos alone was $150 million dollars, worldwide it may have been as much as a billion dollars, but lets just deal with the Vegas money. At 65% Green Bay money the casinos were looking at a loss of roughly $40 million had the Packers covered, $97.5 million paid out minus $57.75 collected from Seattle bettors, but the final decision created a huge windfall instead with the casinos netting almost $55 million in profits, $52.5 million paid out and $107.25 million collected from losing Green Bay bettors. The net swing is roughly $95 million for something decided by guys who weren't going to be around as refs much longer regardless.

Kind of makes me go............Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Some Sports Observations

I know some of my readers don't care about the "sports" posts but it's my blog so they are going to keep happening once in a while.

This is the best time of the year for me sports wise, MLB is heading into the playoffs, the NFL and US college football are getting underway and, normally, the NHL would be just around the corner . Of course the likelihood of the NHL returning any day son isn't looking good with the owners having decided that giving the talent 57% of the revenue is a bad business model, even though they made it up themselves, and the players, like most people, aren't willing to relinquish things they already have so I think this one is going to drag on for awhile. I don't think the entire season will be lost, as happened in 2004-05, but a shortened season ala the 1994-95 lockout is a pretty likely scenario.

In the NFL the season opened this week, after avoiding their own potential work stoppage in 2011, and my beloved Redskins posted a marvelous first week result behind their wonderkind rookie QB Robert Griffin III, or RG3 as he is known. Griffin cost Washington three first round picks, and a second round pick, to end their quarterback carousel and at least yesterday he was worth it leading the 'Skins past the Saints, in New Orleans, and putting 40 points on the board. Only time will tell but right now it looks like the Washington quarterback situation is solved, now about that pass defense.

The NFL labour struggles aren't over however, while the teams and players have worked out their differences the league has not come to terms with the officials leading to week one games being refereed by replacement officials who apparently weren't as bad as expected. The situation did lead to the sports quote of the week however as after the opening game NY Giants linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka was quoted as saying : "I haven't been held this much since I was a baby"

In baseball the pennant race in the American League East is as tight as Uncle Donnie's wallet when it's time to buy a round of drinks, with the Evil Empire holding a slim one game lead on the over achieving Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore are defying all odds in that they are 16 games over .500 while having scored less runs than their opposition, no other team in MLB with a negative run differential is above .500 yet there are the O's at 78-62 making life extremely uncomfortable for the suddenly struggling Yankees. I grew up a Yankees fan, and will likely always be one, but I have a bad feeling about this year, oh well it could be worse, I could be cheering for the last place Boston Red Sox (man it feels good to write that) .

The other positive I have as a Yankees fan is watching their captain, #2, Derek Sanderson Jeter play. Jeter  might possibly manage to be the most under rated and most over rated player of all time. You will still find people argue that Jeter is not a Hall of Famer despite that fact that, barring a season ending injury or a meteor hitting earth, sometime this week Jeter will pass Willie Mays in career hits. Just roll that around in your head, Mays is generally regarded as one of the ten greatest players ever to play the game and yet Jeter trails him by only four hits. In fact at age 38 Jeter currently leads the American League in hits and will move into the top 10 all time early next season, yet you will still find people who think he's not a Hall of Famer, of course most of them are Massholes but still . On the other hand Jeter has no good reason to have five Gold Glove Awards in his trophy case, but after getting jobbed in the 2006 MVP voting I'm guessing Jeter figures he might as well keep the Gold Gloves .

Anyway, I hope the Yankees make the post season. I hope the Redskins continue to play well. I hope the Red Sox continue to lose until the end of time and I really hope the NHL owners and players come to their senses and realize that another work stoppage will be the end of the league .

Humility thy name is not Donovan McNabb

A quick segue into sports this morning.

In a recent interview with Fox Sports former Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb was discussing his football future, McNabb was released after six games with Minnesota last season after his one season experiment in Washington failed miserably.  McNabb stated that there was an "80-90% chance of him playing in the NFL this season", which is probably about 75-85% too high but a man has to have dreams.  McNabb didn't only feel very good about his upcoming season he also took the time to bash Washington head coach Mike Shanahan for "misusing" McNabb, as a Redskins fan I concur but my feeling is that Shanahan really misused McNabb by acquiring him and allowing him to play quarterback for the Redskins, probably not what Donovan had in mind with his use of the term.

Later in the interview McNabb takes some time to diss future Hall of Fame wide receiver Terrel Owens and then discussed his own Hall of Fame credentials.  McNabb spent thirteen seasons as a starting quarterback in the NFL, mostly with a a very good Philadelphia team, he made six pro bowl teams and helped the Eagles reach the playoffs eight times but was never able to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl win, they lost their only appearance during McNabb's tenure 21-24 to New England.  McNabb is inside the top twenty in many quarterback related categories but not dominant in any area and, as previously mentioned, never won a Super Bowl, regardless McNabb himself is quite clear that he belongs in the Hall of Fame, to quote:

"these last two years, when people may look at it and say, 'Oh, he's done, or whatever.' I'm 34, 35 years old, but still, I played at the pinnacle, I played at the highest level of my career. I played there," McNabb told Fox Sports. "And I would vote for myself for the Hall of Fame."  Well if a sense of self worth is all it takes to play in the NFL then maybe Donovan's right about that 90% chance of playing this season.